Walking around Seattle (2008-04-22/05-10)

After 226 days of walking entered in Walker Tracker, on April 21 the Omron Health Management Software, while receiving data (using a USB cable from the pedometer to the PC), began reporting "The data transfer failed." I hoped it would eventually download--perhaps after the offending day's data had left the device's memory--but now my Omron HJ-720ITC pedometer has begun showing days with zero steps. Like others who have posted elsewhere, I am "disappointed" at the device failure. "For me the selling point was the USB connection," wrote one reviewer (see Google cache). I'll switch pedometers to resume tracking.

Getting immunized downtown (2008-05-06)

While I was entering Tarangire National Park (March 14, 2000), a tsetse fly bit the back of my hand. Fearing further bites, when I reached the porch of my ridge tent I took off my shirt to spray it with Permethrin--and a tsetse fly bit my back.

Later that day I developed diarrhea and a moderate fever. As my temperature rose I worried I would become delirious and no one would discover my condition. This was one of three times in Africa that I wished I had a traveling companion.

My fever stopped rising and finally dropped, I got some rest, and my driver checked with me the next morning. The following day I was well and resumed my safari, taking photographs of elephants and afternoon storms.

This illustrates part of my philosophy of travel. I take whatever precautions are possible, accept that traveling has risks, and then forget my worries and focus on enjoying the experience.

Some precautions are medications and vaccinations for vaccine-preventable diseases. Last year I wrote about anti-malarial medication, mosquito avoidance, and a red colobus monkey. Vaccinations include routine vaccinations like MMR, polio, and Tdap, as well as vaccinations like hepatitis (A and B), rabies, and typhoid.

When I went to Africa, I was watching wild animals, so I received rabies vaccinations. For our trip to China, there wasn't time for the series, and we anticipated less time outdoors. For similar reasons we didn't get the Japanese encephalitis vaccinations. In addition, there are shortages of both of those vaccines. We'll avoid malaria-risk areas of China as well. We did go to King County Downtown Public Health Center Travel Clinic to update routine vaccinations and get hepatitis and typhoid vaccinations. Finally, Ryan is spraying our clothing with Permethrin. At least this time I'm not traveling alone.

Buying Northwest Tickets (2008-04-30)

At the end of April I bought us tickets to China using Expedia Travel. We depart Seattle May 12, arriving in Tokyo on May 13 and proceeding on to Běijīng. We depart Hong Kong June 2 for Seattle (via Tokyo again). We're excited to again venture abroad to somewhere new. It's been nearly two years since we purchased our last international flights to Paris. I hope they honor our visas because I'm looking forward to learning Mandarin and seeing tourist sights (e.g., palaces and temples)!

Getting Visas (2008-03-13)

Learning Mandarin leaves me interested in traveling the PRC. We filled out the "Visa Application Form of the People’s Republic of China", listing as destinations Běijīng, Jǐnán, Shànghǎi, Hángzhōu, Xiàmén, Guǎngzhōu, Shēnzhèn, Hong Kong, and Aòmén (Macau).

On March 7 I relinquished two passports and US$300 cash to Holiday China China in Seattle. A week or so later I retrieved the passports with 12-month multiple-entry tourist (L) visas valid for 60 days each entry.

On March 27, according to the South China Morning Post (via a thread in Asia - North-East Asia Thorn Tree Travel Forum), the PRC stopped issuing multiple-entry visas, restricting travelers to single- or double-entry visas valid for 30 days. This is especially inconvenient for business travelers, one of whom started a blog. A business associate with an apartment in Běijīng wrote, "First time in 15 years I have worried about China immigration." Yesterday the PRC said the restrictions on visas are part of its Olympic security measures. I'm glad we applied early, though I'm slightly worried about third-hand rumors of multiple entry Chinese visas being canceled at the border.

Listening to Mandarin (2008-01-05/04-20)

Today I am intrigued by juxtaposition of contrasts in spoken (and written) Chinese:

• to ask, "Is it?" say shì bú shì (是不是), putting "is" next to "isn't";
• to refer to "thing," say dōng xi (东西), putting "east" next to "west";
• to ask, "How many?" say duō shao (多少), putting "many" next to "few"; and
  
• to refer to "size", say dà xiǎo(大小), putting "big" next to "small."

Though not in this blog's goal list, "Chat in Mandarin" is my 2008 non-work mental challenge. I listen daily on my 30 GB iPod to Instant Immersion Mandarin Chinese or Pimsleur Chinese (Mandarin) I, usually while doing 30 minutes of moderate activity. I chose Mandarin because Asia would be new to me and because there are perhaps 1.05 billion speakers. It's the language with the most native speakers (followed by Spanish and English, which I already speak)--an order of magnitude more speakers than other Chinese languages like Cantonese.

I've written about mental self-improvement several times. Recent research into neuroplasticity suggests thinking, learning, and acting actually change the brain. One of the activities Mozart's Brain and the Fighter Pilot: Unleashing Your Brain's Potential consequently encourages is memorization. Since Mandarin is not in the Indo-European language family like Spanish and English, it poses a memorization challenge for me (though thankfully not due to noun declensions or verb conjugations).

An additional memorization challenge is learning Chinese characters or hàn zì (汉字). In fact, some recommend against learning characters at first; others think writing is the main reason Chinese is so hard. (In contrast, to me the four tones don't sound hard so far.) I am studying an average of one simplified character and compound per day from Tuttle Learning Chinese Characters Volume 1: A Revolutionary New Way To Learn And Remember The 800 Most Basic Chinese Characters.

For flashcards I enter hàn zì into Zhongwen Development Tool (zdt)，a program discussed in Chinese forums that has a plug-in to search the CEDICT Chinese-English dictionary. I also downloaded a Pimsleur word list for zdt. The zdt stores hàn zì, pīnyīn romanization, and English definition. Other information (e.g., Learning Chinese Characters visual imagery), I enter into Mnemosyne.

Instant Immersion Mandarin Chinese came with Talk Now! Plus software from Eurotalk Interactive. However, both of the SourceForge programs (zdt and Mnemosyne), like the Pimsleur language learning system, use spaced repetition techniques (an idea I first encountered in Tony Buzan's Use Both Sides of Your Brain). Mnemosyne uses an early version of (and simpler interface to) the SuperMemo algorithm discussed in this month's Wired.

This juxtaposition of modern research and tools with an ancient language and writing may help my memory, but it also provides direction for travel. True immersion may be available in the People's Republic of China, where the official language is Standard Mandarin and the government uses simplified characters.

Reading Agile Software Development with Scrum (2007-12-17/2008-01-01)

"Scrum is built on an empirical process control model which is radically different from the defined model that most processes and methodologies use."
--Ken Schwaber and Mike Beedle, Agile Software Development with Scrum

This past month I attended a Seattle XP Users Group meeting, read Agile Software Development with Scrum (one of two books that are primary sources of information about Scrum), and toured SolutionsIQ (a Seattle-area Scrum training and consulting firm). I wanted to see how my company's experience with small teams compares with our colleagues' in the industry. We'd been using agile development methodologies and tools since before starting the company, due to reading Extreme Programming Explained: Embrace Change, Planning Extreme Programming, and similar books by Kent Beck and Martin Fowler.

Readers of this blog may recognize in agile development methodologies the management paradigms I profess. My management methods led my company to agile development methodologies like Scrum and Extreme Programming. My blog posts on management books provide the following principles:

1. Update opinions from observations. ("The Map is Not the Territory.")
2. Develop a culture of interdependence. ("Mature from Dependence to Independence to Interdependence," and "People are smarter than you think. Give them a chance to prove themselves.")
3. Prioritize what's important. ("Good is the Enemy of Best.")
4. Jointly determine the course. (See The 8th Habit.)
   
5. Set up and manage systems to stay on course. (See The 8th Habit.)
6. Focus talents on results, not methods, then get out of people's way and give help as requested. (See The 8th Habit.)
7. "Never automate something that can be eliminated, and never delegate something that can be automated or streamlined."
   

The principles above aren't articulated in industry terms, however. Specifically in software development these principles lead to the following practices:

1. Inspect results and update process.
2. Rely on people.
3. Work on highest priorities.
4. Teach self-managing teams.
5. Improve processes.
6. Remove impediments.
7. Automate testing.
   

These practices are agile:

1. Agile Software Development with Scrum emphasizes empirical process control.
2. Agile methods have a people-first orientation.
3. Product backlog and sprint backlog are prioritized.
4. Scrum uses self-managing teams.
5. Extreme Programming suggests various process improvements like spike solutions, coding standards, continuous integration.
   
6. A Scrum Master uses a daily stand-up meeting to learn impediments to remove them.
7. Extreme Programming emphasizes automated unit (and acceptance) tests.
   

I would list examples from our experience (e.g., engineering estimation, comparison to CMM Level 2 and key process areas, serving manufacturing clients, consensus decision-making) but this blog post is already long. However, I'll write that I'm pleased with how agile practice embodies good paradigms and principles.

[Updated FAQ link.]

Reviewing 2007 in Seattle (2007-12-31)

I'm pleased with 2007 in Seattle, though I'll adjust my goals for 2008 in light of a review of the past year. While I had personal goals--some qualitative--, and even goals for how I help others, there are some quantitative goals I mentioned in this blog. Below is the year in numbers, Harper's Index style:

• Total pages I read for "Where's William?" blog: 8,263
• Number of books I wanted to blog in 2007: 50
• Actual number of blog posts about books in 2007: 30
• My blogged books score: 60%
• Number of books I want to blog in 2008: 12
• Six-hour days I wanted to spend in the forest in 2007: 6
• Six-hour days I actually spent in the forest in 2007: 5
• My outdoors score: 83%
• Six-hour days I want to spend in the forest in 2008: 6
• Pounds I wanted to lose upon returning from Paris: 15
• Pounds I lost and kept off at first through workouts and frequent small healthy meals and later through walking: 17
• My weight score: 113%
• Body fat percentage I want to lose in 2008: 4%
  
• Songs I wanted to perform on the guitar in 2007: 5
• Songs I performed on the guitar in 2007: 0
• My guitar score: 0%
• Songs I want to perform on the guitar in 2008: 2
  
• Maximum miles I wanted my car driven in 2007: 14,400
• Actual miles my car was driven in 2007: 9,508
• My mileage score: 151%
• Maximum miles I want my car driven in 2008: 9,600
  
• Days/week since 2007-09-06 I wanted 30 minutes of moderate activity: 5
• Days/week since 2007-09-06 I did 30 minutes of moderate activity: 4.2
• My walking score: 84%
• Days/week I want 30 minutes of moderate activity in 2008: 5
  

Reading Plato and a Platypus Walk into a Bar (2007-12-25)

A New York boy is being led through the swamps of Louisiana by his cousin. "Is it true that an alligator won't attack you if you carry a flashlight?" asks the city boy.
His cousin replies, "Depends on how fast you carry the flashlight."

--Thomas Cathcart and Daniel Klein, Plato and a Platypus Walk into a Bar: Understanding Philosophy Through Jokes

Confusing the cause of an alligator attack is an example of post hoc ergo propter hoc, a fallacy that Plato and a Platypus Walk into a Bar describes in chapter II, "Logic." (It is a minor spoiler to opine that the punchline of the best post hoc ergo propter hoc joke is, "'Schmuck, that's the way you wave a towel!'") Logic is one of ten topics in the book that together give an overview of the story of philosophy. Thomas Cathcart and Daniel Klein summarize major schools of thought in each topic, and illustrate them with interspersed jokes. I read their book--a gift from Ryan--on Christmas Day at our apartment and friends'. I found it funny, and finished wanting more details on some philosophers--or at least more jokes.

Reading The Four Pillars of Investing

With relatively little effort, you can design and assemble an investment portfolio that, because of its wide diversification and minimal expense, will prove superior to most professionally managed accounts.

--William J. Bernstein, The Four Pillars of Investing: Lessons for Building a Winning Portfolio

A neurologist from Oregon seems an unlikely candidate for financial author and theorist. Perhaps it is not surprising, then, that William J. Bernstein, Ph.D., M.D.--author of The Intelligent Asset Allocator: How to Build Your Portfolio to Maximize Returns and Minimize Risk and The Birth of Plenty : How the Prosperity of the Modern World was Created--contrasts much of his financial advice with conventional wisdom. He writes, "Your social instincts will corrode your wealth by persuading you to own what everyone else in the market owns."

Of stockbrokers Bernstein writes, "He also occupies the lowest rung in the hierarchy of investment knowledge." Of the financial press he writes, "Ninety-nine percent of what you read about investing in magazines and newspapers, and 100% of what you hear on television is worse than worthless." U.S. stock returns are a "random walk" that no one can predict and few in the industry understand. (See the "drunkard's walk" in Conned Again, Watson!; this concept also inspired the title of Burton G. Malkiel's A Random Walk Down Wall Street, which I have borrowed from the Seattle Public Library or SPL.)

Perhaps some of Bernstein's assertions are not surprising: "Risk and return are inextricably enmeshed." While this stands in contrast to occasional low-risk, high-return offers, most readers know these to be too good to be true. Other authors, too, warn against overconfidence, Mistake 1 in Rational Investing in Irrational Times: How to Avoid the Costly Mistakes Even Smart People Make Today by Larry E. Swedroe (also out from the SPL). Edelman and Bernstein emphasize that "You are your own worst enemy."

However, unlike your coworker on the telephone daily with his broker (a broker who Bernstein writes "services his clients in the same way that Bonnie and Clyde serviced banks"), writers Edelman and Bernstein agree that "Stock picking and market timing are expensive, risky, and ultimately futile exercises." Edelman and Bernstein both follow modern portfolio theory; Bernstein especially believes the market is efficient. And in response to the high-fee funds recommended by your financial consultant, Bernstein warns, "The primary business of most mutual-fund companies is collecting assets, not managing money. Pay close attention to the ownership structure of your fund company and of the fees it charges."

Some authors--like Edelman--look at the 10.40% total return of the S&P Stock Index from January 1, 1926 to June 30, 2003 (while noting that past performance is no indication of future results). Bernstein, however, begins with Venetian prestiti prices from 1300 to 1500. "[T]he odds always favor data gathered over the longest time periods." He proceeds through economic history and then uses the Gordon equation to estimate the long-term expected return of the market as 6%.

Bernstein's combination of theory, history, psychology and business (the four pillars) is appealing to me because of its academic approach and statistical emphasis. The Four Pillars of Investing offers an intellectual investigation into the folksy advice to build portfolio income, written in an equally engaging style.

Reading Quantico (2007-11-14/17)

"Goddamn it," the President said, "Did they give them to you without a subpoena?"....
Chao put on a stubborn look. "It is our job to find dangerous criminals. Would you have it any other way?"

--Greg Bear, Quantico

A friend who knew I had read local author Greg Bear's Darwin's Radio, Darwin's Children, and / offered another book after my appendectomy: Quantico. Like the Greg Bear books I've read, Quantico is still-relevant (copyright 2005, 2006) near-future hard science fiction. (The science is even more current than Quarantine.) Like the Darwin series, Quantico involves molecular biology; like /, significant events occur in Seattle and Washington (although some events take place at Quantico).

Quantico is a frightening techno-thriller set in the US after another attack similar to 9-11, intending to portray the dangers of bioterrorism like Amerithrax:

The biological weapons and process in this novel are possible, but not in the way I have described them. I have tried to persuade of the dangers without providing salient details.
The dangers are real, and immediate. Sober judgment, selflessness, nonpartisan planning, and sanity are the only solutions.

The story also includes a female president with a stand on violations of personal privacy as a strong part of her campaign. The tension between liberty and security is therefore part of the book. In the scene with the President and Chao, I also wondered why the FBI would not pursue a subpoena. (To their credit, several agents in the book express skepticism about information extracted via rendition or torture.)

Such famous quotes as, "Those who would give up Essential Liberty to purchase a little Temporary Safety, deserve neither Liberty nor Safety," and "Give me Liberty, or give me Death!" show this tension is part of the history of the United States of America. Unfortunately, so is depopulation from imported infection--see Guns, Germs, and Steel.

Sometimes on issues with different but similarly important needs, debate becomes polarized around the conflicts between those needs. For example, economic growth and environmental health are in tension in environmentalism. In such cases one can sometimes search for solutions with synergy between the two needs, e.g., bright green environmentalism. This is the type of solution I support.

In Quantico, Bear uses his "powerful [imagination to]... conjure up not only possible methods of attack, but also ideas about how governments and individuals will respond and what kinds of high-tech tools could prevent attacks." Let us hope they respond in ways that enhance liberty rather than reduce it.